Strategic Commerce

The US USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List expanded from 50 to 60 minerals. China controls ~60% of rare earth mining and ~85% of processing globally. Export controls on gallium and germanium were first imposed August 1, 2023; expanded to US-specific prohibition in December 2024; partially suspended in November 2025. Graphite controls took effect December 1, 2023. These minerals underpin the AI economy: every data center GPU, every EV battery, every 5G antenna. This dossier maps the geopolitical resource layer beneath the AI revolution.

The US IRA Section 45V provides up to $3.00/kg for qualified clean hydrogen production. Global unsubsidized green hydrogen LCOH ranges from $2.50–$5.00/kg; IRA-subsidized projects achieve $1.00–$2.00/kg. Global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity has reached over 60 GW/year as of 2026, though installed capacity lags significantly due to project FID delays. Green hydrogen's ultimate market potential extends across fertilizers, steel, chemicals, shipping, aviation, and industrial processes that cannot be electrified directly. This dossier maps the economics, policy architecture, and deployment reality of green hydrogen.

Supply chain disruptions rose 30–38% in 2024 over the prior year. The Red Sea crisis added 3,500–4,000 nautical miles and 10–14 days to Asia-Europe voyages, driving freight rates to five times pre-crisis levels. AI supply chain management was a $6.5–9B market in 2024, projected to reach $23–53B by 2030. Gartner specifically forecasts agentic AI SCM software growing from <$2B to $53B by 2030. This dossier maps the intelligence-led trade framework and the agent fleet architecture making supply chain sovereignty achievable.

On April 2, 2025, the US announced 'Liberation Day' tariffs — sweeping reciprocal tariffs across essentially all trading partners. This dossier analyzes the transition from trade regulation to dynamic industrial policy architecture.