Macro Strategy & Capital Architecture

As machine learning collapses the marginal cost of statistical prediction toward zero, economic rent aggressively migrates across enterprise value chains. Grounded in price theory, Christensen's Conservation of Attractive Profits, Kremer's O-Ring production function, and organizational economics, this dossier analyzes why prediction commoditizes while judgment appreciates, why Coasean market decentralization fails against context rot and liability inelasticity, and how firm boundaries polarize into asset-heavy cybernetic operators.

A comprehensive gap analysis of the global payments architecture, from ISO 20022 migration and Project Agorá to the rise of Agentic M2M settlement. The conclusion of the SWIFT coexistence period marks the transition from batch-based correspondent banking to atomic, unified ledger finality.

Global AI venture funding reached $202-211 billion in 2025 - nearly 50% of all global VC. Foundation model companies alone raised ~$80 billion, more than double 2024's $31 billion. Hyperscalers committed $350–410 billion in combined capex. Agentic AI funding grew from $1.5B to $2.9B year-over-year, with vertical agents capturing 72% of that category. This dossier maps where the next decade of value accrues — and why the foundation model layer is not it.